MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00cf78549b2edeb77715b1f6345aab3903b7211270a883d8eb24bcc23be4483c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 29,356$13,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,503.59 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 9,126$4,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 54c | 6,411$3,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949.48 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 54c | 3,710$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.59 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 11c | 1,635$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.66 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 1,166$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.58 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,110$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 54c | 1,003$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.38 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 975$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 46c | 680$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.8 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 390.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 54c | 344$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.83 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 308.19$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 295$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 45c | 176.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 14c | 148.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 144$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 55c | 136$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 72.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 78c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 54c | 56.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 54c | 48.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 46c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 54c | 46.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 46c | 44.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…4ac7backed Over | 54c | 36.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 45c | 23.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.