MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c5606580ab16f03adf8767be26ad0c9d72fbb618dbfaa5c55267ece3c94f39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 77c | 1,343$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.79 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 23c | 1,298$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 79c | 690.46$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 638.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 582.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 479.68$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.04 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 35c | 406.58$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…0608backed Over | 38c | 355.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 302.85$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.82 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 10c | 301$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 10c | 301$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 38c | 261.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 245$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Over | 62c | 214.05$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 213.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…707fbacked Over | 38c | 176.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 73c | 149.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 49c | 116.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 62c | 94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 62c | 84.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 78c | 74.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 49c | 57.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 25c | 45.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 63c | 37.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 61c | 35.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 64c | 26.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 49c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 62c | 18.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-6.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.