Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0106f9f02272a568c65a27f2ea9bb0df767dc5840543c1ec8840692b09c45114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 77c | 696.27$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.05 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 43c | 339.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.42 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 291.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 57c | 262.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.11 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 21c | 262.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.39 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 14c | 227.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 212.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.89 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 196.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 38c | 164.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 150.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 132.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 132.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 129.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 22c | 124.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 24c | 121.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 16c | 106.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 104.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 15c | 103.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 28c | 101.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 55c | 98.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 93.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 23c | 87.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 21c | 83.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 13c | 81.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 27c | 69.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 63.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 34c | 53.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 25c | 48.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 43.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 30c | 42.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 44c | 34.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 32.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 31.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 31.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 71c | 25.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 68c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 78c | 19.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…c46fbacked No | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.