Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa21fa9461cea815338579cad15d2f972d4503a1984d1c98113c0b92abe82d17e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 318.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 293.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 276.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 260$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 177.34$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 176.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 160.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 13c | 128.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 11c | 127.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 28c | 125.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 71c | 104.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 99.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 75.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 77c | 64.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 56.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 28c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 51.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 51.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 49.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 49.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 47.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 46.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 40.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 38.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddf…b38cbacked No | 72c | 35.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 72c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 72c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 74c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.