Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f2a78be91593c5c030acb2a6275fc3a83e7f4e5836badc075cccd2b75caa9af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 69c | 1,638$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.59 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 57c | 1,554$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.42 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 895.13$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 23c | 547.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.99 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 34c | 350.26$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.82 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 3c | 320.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.79 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 8c | 316.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.73 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 260.92$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 46c | 196.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 55c | 194.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 13c | 193.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 35c | 178.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 167.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 166.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 70c | 164.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 31c | 152.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 144.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 132.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 18c | 122.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 26c | 120.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 44c | 120.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 21c | 110.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 108.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 13c | 105.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 13c | 95.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 14c | 94.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 87.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 27c | 74.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 74c | 70.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 64.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 62.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 54c | 61.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 56.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 42c | 47.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 47.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 72c | 44.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 42.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 42c | 38.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 35.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1e…f77bbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 48c | 33.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 32.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 31.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…d265backed Yes | 64c | 27.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 60c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 73c | 17.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 63c | 16.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.