MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01572099ea3ca6d56463fa984ce871bf817eb78325e239ea7b8d92b74b66b364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 920$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 43c | 681.03$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.25 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 42c | 403.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked No | 58c | 354.02$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed No | 57c | 253.1$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 236.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed No | 57c | 219.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 42c | 130.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 59c | 90.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 44c | 79.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 42c | 73.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…ae72backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc033…1fb4backed No | 57c | 32.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…6fbfbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…cdb1backed No | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed No | 56c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 56c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.