MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f991a01f9637c0e1c933bc9e4bf70da184c5ac4279cc29bfc4127d1137a0a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 9,986$7,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 8,548$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 2,469$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 1,523$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,503$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Over | 41c | 1,500$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.99 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,339$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Over | 73c | 1,310$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.87 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 49c | 1,265$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.8 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 49c | 1,265$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.8 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 969.28$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 28c | 594$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 54c | 583.08$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.08 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 71c | 557.23$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.32 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 72c | 418.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 29c | 383.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 52c | 208$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 191.09$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 27c | 174.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 59c | 150.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 29c | 89.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 32c | 82.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Over | 27c | 64.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Over | 25c | 61.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 58c | 57.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 69c | 51.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 74c | 50.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…7525backed Over | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 62c | 46.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 30c | 45.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 30c | 43.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 55c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 43c | 23.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Under | 76c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.