MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b92a6fba156e1208c61d48505724539c295e051e202ec5fca5a9bc73448613e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 3,908$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 2,867$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.76 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 56c | 1,927$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.91 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 1,699$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 45c | 1,186$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.44 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 1,054$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 746.82$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.54 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 468.19$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 437.45$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 356.04$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 340.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.65 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 55c | 280$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 269.53$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 57c | 221.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 41c | 164.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…f325backed Under | 55c | 124.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…095dbacked Under | 57c | 119.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 117.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 115.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 45c | 110.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 55c | 104.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked Over | 43c | 90.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb021…4aabbacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 55c | 66.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 41c | 62.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 51.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c0…5dd2backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 184 | 58.2%107 W · 77 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 43c | 44.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 56c | 39.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 57c | 38.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 56c | 37.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 59c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 55c | 32.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…df0dbacked Over | 48c | 31.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329e…2eafbacked Under | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Over | 42c | 26.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 55c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…e0ddbacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…8f57backed Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 46c | 22.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 53c | 22.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 50c | 21.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Under | 57c | 21.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.