MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02c723f29ca15f3e192f80e063d7f9ac17fd6cc99a7abd88f599ce6ddd0c5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed New York Yankees | 40c | 4,000$1,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.38 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed New York Yankees | 42c | 3,719$1,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.51 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 2,352$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 2,079$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 1,404$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 750$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed New York Yankees | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 240.39$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 72c | 240$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 206.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.11 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…f25dbacked New York Yankees | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 66 | 69.7%46 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc5…d49fbacked New York Yankees | 51c | 192.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Yankees | 38c | 158.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.62 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 88.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 73c | 58.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Yankees | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked New York Yankees | 41c | 51.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 35.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 35.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 20.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.