MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc88060f38c792e0685db5f79706392b4a329c9b7a25874b5041b9d067493e0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 93,645$46,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,141.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 92,221$46,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,410.51 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…4717backed Over | 52c | 37,000$19,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,230.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 33,087$15,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,205.22 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 10,293$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.06 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 2,923$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.49 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 49c | 1,917$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.19 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 1,844$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.5 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 1,420$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.25 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,371$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.55 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 49c | 986$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.14 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 938.19$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 910.27$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.14 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 49c | 750.1$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.55 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 49c | 710.37$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.29 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 580$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 512.47$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.61 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 462$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 50c | 450.27$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.14 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05d…ac5ebacked Over | 50c | 399.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 51c | 336.82$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.27 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 49c | 277.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Under | 54c | 276.35$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 268.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 49c | 242.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 209.93$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 158.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 127.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…82a2backed Under | 48c | 119.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 16c | 99.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 85.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Over | 51c | 78.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked Over | 51c | 77.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Under | 48c | 61.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…9c47backed Under | 50c | 59.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 49c | 49.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…f901backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 51c | 39.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b4…1fc5backed Over | 49c | 35.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Under | 48c | 34.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 50c | 33.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 51c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Over | 51c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…5c4bbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 50c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 68c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 50c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 48c | 20.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…4297backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.