MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb90551985875517466f6878e49fef3e0aa6fd020761155fb7e24347891fe1e21

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved: May 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,958 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees	37c	14,520$5,382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,381.76	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays	64c	13,690$8,737 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,953.01	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked New York Yankees	43c	9,000$3,913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,913.4	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Toronto Blue Jays	58c	5,415$3,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,274.4	283	50.9%144 W · 139 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees	42c	4,974$2,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,089.2	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays	56c	3,078$1,733 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,344.32	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	2,500$1,425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,075	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays	56c	2,000$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$870	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees	43c	1,714$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.83	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	1,500$855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$645	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays	57c	1,497$853 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.64	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays	57c	1,340$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$576.2	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Toronto Blue Jays	57c	1,000$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430	64	59.4%38 W · 26 L	+8.9wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays	58c	963.32$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.59	1,845	50.7%936 W · 909 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed New York Yankees	43c	950.41$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.17	2,375	47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74a…f1bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays	58c	835.83$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.05	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Toronto Blue Jays	58c	542.06$314 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.67	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked New York Yankees	43c	470$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.1	119	48.7%58 W · 61 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked New York Yankees	37c	403$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.02	1,119	45.5%509 W · 610 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays	56c	400$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e46…42dfbacked New York Yankees	20c	399.1$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed New York Yankees	41c	304.58$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.88	573	46.9%269 W · 304 L	+14.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked New York Yankees	43c	300$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	115	50.4%58 W · 57 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays	79c	270.75$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.68	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked New York Yankees	42c	238.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	193	48.7%94 W · 99 L	+15.6wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+16%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	222$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.46	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed New York Yankees	43c	208.14$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	133	54.9%73 W · 60 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees	28c	184$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	4,405	44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L	+80.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	180$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.4	1,445	50%723 W · 722 L	+26.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Toronto Blue Jays	59c	169.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.49	667	48.7%325 W · 342 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked New York Yankees	37c	141.38$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.58	325	50.5%164 W · 161 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed New York Yankees	35c	139.79$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.59	582	54.3%316 W · 266 L	+16.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays	58c	120$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.88	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed New York Yankees	43c	117$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.31	726	48.1%349 W · 377 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cce…2ff1backed New York Yankees	43c	116.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed New York Yankees	40c	114$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.85	946	48.9%463 W · 483 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked New York Yankees	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	478	49%234 W · 244 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed New York Yankees	37c	103.79$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.53	105	39%41 W · 64 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays	61c	94.43$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.67	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed New York Yankees	42c	78.25$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.22	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked New York Yankees	43c	69.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	252	48%121 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees	44c	66.97$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed New York Yankees	37c	51$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	228	48.2%110 W · 118 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed New York Yankees	35c	50.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Toronto Blue Jays	59c	50.84$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.84	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays	56c	50.14$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.06	1,538	48.6%747 W · 791 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	47$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.21	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked New York Yankees	35c	45.2$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	475	52.4%249 W · 226 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees	44c	42.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	2,044	39.5%808 W · 1,236 L	-24.6wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd3…5896backed New York Yankees	43c	41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	174	46%80 W · 94 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	41$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.63	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays	57c	38.61$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.6	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked New York Yankees	42c	35.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-3.9wins	-0.18per pick	59cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays	55c	35.33$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	1,445	50.3%727 W · 718 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Toronto Blue Jays	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	459	52.9%243 W · 216 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed New York Yankees	43c	32.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4436…cf98backed New York Yankees	46c	25.67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-5.3wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-37%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Toronto Blue Jays	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	237	50.6%120 W · 117 L	-11.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbbf…388ebacked Toronto Blue Jays	72c	15.21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.21	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 2.5Over won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event