Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x015876b7cd6e12f475fe108077cf58276a49958d97436c666f9e61fa876aa89e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 681.75$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 50c | 232.77$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 202.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 173.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 171$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 63c | 158.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 125.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 28c | 124.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 121.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 111.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 102.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 102.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 45c | 98.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 92.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 90.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 89.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 88.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 88.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 87.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 86.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 85.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 53c | 78.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 72c | 78.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 16c | 72.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 70.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 37c | 65.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 46c | 64.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 63c | 63.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 63.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 61.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 53c | 61.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 52c | 57.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 55.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 38c | 51.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 27c | 50.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 50.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…8dfabacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…52a1backed Yes | 71c | 49.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 53c | 46.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 45.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 55c | 43.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 34.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 33.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 64c | 30.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 76c | 25.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 76c | 24.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 53c | 23.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 61c | 21.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 20.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07c…6c36backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…05e4backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…58d4backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 17.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.