AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x015f7ae2151752539bed6d27cab33b108456a3b0c5c7b99c7419a023d0998cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 6c | 6,873$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.26 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…bfecbacked No | 33c | 1,721$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 14c | 1,652$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 13c | 1,644$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.26 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 9c | 1,570$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 10c | 1,023$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 16c | 906.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 7c | 687.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 490.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 7c | 422.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeeb…4498backed No | 11c | 367.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 17c | 349.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abd…0130backed No | 20c | 333.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 7c | 302.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 207.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…6fa5backed No | 7c | 198.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 6c | 180.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 80c | 168.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 7c | 156.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed No | 8c | 125.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…1e68backed No | 8c | 124.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…9ecdbacked No | 12c | 123.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 17c | 121.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…a6b9backed No | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 73c | 33.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 74c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will claude-opus-4-6 be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.