World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01bea012a41d10bcd1734412d510ad2b5e0dd17a03a130e0cd79055d99b71a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 1,303$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,030$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.33 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 3c | 567.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 4c | 370.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 4c | 319.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 251.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 251.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 7c | 239$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 5c | 231.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 211.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 209.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 196.8$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 196.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 186.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 150.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 139$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 32c | 115.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 109.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 108.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 104.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 102.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 97.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 77c | 87.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 74.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 18c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 70.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…d089backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 45.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 78c | 45.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 68c | 45.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 38.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 28.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 68c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 66c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 17.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 78c | 16.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.