TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes0c5,943$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes25c580.73$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.185749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No66c373.2$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c359.4$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9436055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No76c299.3$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.136533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes32c294.47$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes23c264.73$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.685117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No73c264.02$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes13c238.14$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c42…4428backed Yes37c210.04$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes28c207.25$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0611636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes14c179.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7111039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c168.59$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No77c166.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.647353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c165.12$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes29c149.54$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.685837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes26c148.16$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.055341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c147.51$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c146.2$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c145.72$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4831152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No78c140.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.973040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No72c139.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.644240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes30c138.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.534139%16 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+45.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes27c134.92$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes30c131.36$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.778636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c42…bad9backed No77c130.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No79c126.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c116.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.856336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.62634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes36c113.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.492653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59b0…56e8backed Yes45c110.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes46c106$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes34c101.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.331926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No72c100.95$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.834052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes22c100.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1123723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes42c100.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.724233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.941030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6516934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes30c98.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+233.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes31c98.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes31c91.52$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No77c90.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.752352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c89.52$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.356462.5%40 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes26c84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.145141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No72c83.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.413748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes30c83.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.981952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce05…7852backed Yes25c78.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c77.7$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.568672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c76.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9932748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No69c74.86$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.215066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes24c74.58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c72.37$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.844037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No74c70.19$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.526731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.68235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6173…31d4backed No74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No72c64$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.921566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No58c63.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.631250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes27c63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86f9…111ebacked Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e4…b4dabacked No73c54.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.46580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes34c54.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.141723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3de…1751backed Yes37c53.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No62c52.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.976100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes45c52.38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.578236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes39c51.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.771,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes29c51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.868856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.642250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…1902backed No61c49.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.121275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes42c47.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes25c46.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.551827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes22c45.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+73.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c45.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8318035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fa…d6ccbacked Yes33c45.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes28c41.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7618638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1018762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes28c39.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112737%10 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c38.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8440648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No60c37.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9814656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No57c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No54c36.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7826632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes38c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.684233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No63c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.587842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No75c33.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2912249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7810640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No64c31.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.452365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No74c29.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.