TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,642
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,642 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe4bf…ef7cbacked No1c2,323$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No10c999.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43e0…28f0backed Yes65c719.42$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.422638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No22c495.85$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4811647.4%55 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e10…a68abacked Yes32c475.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.85837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No28c467.14$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.145117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c373.2$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes52c369.21$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.2910043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No10c366.04$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.257353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes78c354.26$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6914842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7355…a4febacked Yes52c326.06$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.061631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c307.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.6927521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c282.59$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.416336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c280.96$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9932748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No16c278.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.126731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No48c275.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.475749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes42c275.15$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c275$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c250.46$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c242.37$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c212.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes45c204.5$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.013243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No44c203.7$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes58c198.35$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9111636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes48c197.39$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5927438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes56c182.62$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.513345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c181.01$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1552850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes68c175.49$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3511039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes60c166.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c152.57$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes45c149.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4310733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes51c146.03$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.651952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No8c141.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes57c139.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.821353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No21c136.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes57c127.77$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.253040%12 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes56c125$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No71c125$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes42c118.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed No54c111.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.05425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+1,150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c110.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No61c108.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes55c103.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.71944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes40c101.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.172653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes52c100.21$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.884233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4354934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+233.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes47c92.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9312040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No45c92.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.338856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c91.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.551,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes44c90.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.687020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b0…56e8backed Yes38c84.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No43c83.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9513748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes37c81.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.571030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…c876backed Yes50c77.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.97450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No44c75.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.64850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes52c74.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3316934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes58c74.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.418636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No58c70.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1544138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No58c69.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9910640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf279…202cbacked No46c66.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c88…186bbacked Yes58c66.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes55c66.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.265536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5248…b976backed No46c63.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b5…6dabbacked No47c61.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7be0…53d0backed No48c61.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c59.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes75c59.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No47c58.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.185141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No46c58.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.797030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No57c57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.415945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No44c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3918762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8615056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes50c49.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.945341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes41c48.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes27c48.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.612238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No52c48.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1414656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes59c45.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes44c43.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.538236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes47c42.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.451827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No63c41.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.071250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes43c40.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No54c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.418348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes63c39.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.466346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No39c39.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1712249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes69c38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.683046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c37.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6523459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb58…478abacked Yes45c37.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2b9abacked No64c36.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes37c35.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.674233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No55c35.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4539231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes52c34.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.49633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes74c33.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.672060%12 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No79c33.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.232941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes34c33.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.887236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes34c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No77c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6418669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes51c31.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.479558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.