World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee6f06587566c7e74fee42a4f99b1211776184a6cde5d108de2eab7b77b5f963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e10…a68abacked Yes | 20c | 2,330$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 9c | 813.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 9c | 786.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 737.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 635.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 567.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 7c | 567.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 517.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 8c | 419.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 411.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 5c | 389.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 382.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 7c | 357$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 11c | 356.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 352.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 7c | 326$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 311.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 16c | 284.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 276.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 9c | 261.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 257.34$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 5c | 217.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 17c | 200.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…c48ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 178.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 10c | 159.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 158.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 6c | 158.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 13c | 156.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 12c | 140.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 135.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 10c | 129$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 124.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 11c | 122$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 12c | 114.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 10c | 105.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 10c | 100.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…9b6cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 12c | 99.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 17c | 73.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 66.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 80c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.