MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d17555e78b631e5667662dd05f0cbecbf13b45a2a07afc502cb46839996f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 2,650$1,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,616.42 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 2,372$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.92 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 1,839$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.05 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,345$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.39 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 1,060$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.44 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,027$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 823.1$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 797.45$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.44 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 617.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.71 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 585.98$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 504.24$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.63 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 482.81$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 482$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 444.13$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.92 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 422$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 360.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 330.25$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 319.95$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 301.78$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.09 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…ba80backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 224.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 206.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 168.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 158.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 149.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 137.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 33c | 123.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 122.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 118.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 116.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 113.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 111.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 111.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 86.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 82.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 80.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 79.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 77.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 75.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 75.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 73.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 72.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 68.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 60.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…3b8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 57.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 53.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 52.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 49.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 48.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 43.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 42.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 42.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 41.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 41.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 40.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 38.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 35.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 32.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 28.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 27.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 21.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…8e46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.