MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d5444f87a15feae4a78f0e6cb6ac8800956db8b3065a9e5fcc3cf4f49decb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 19c | 1,305$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 1,099$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 5c | 918.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 848.81$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 18c | 625.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 25c | 337.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 19c | 311.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 74c | 221.9$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 78c | 183$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 77c | 124.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 78c | 123.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 78c | 111.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 17c | 93.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 78c | 89.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 75c | 79.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 78c | 63.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 78c | 63.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 70c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.