MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dfb54eddba66b8c82f4265baa58471acc41557df2c604f1fcac8e193b5595ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 9,736$6,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,602.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 9,204$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 3,017$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 46c | 1,937$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.02 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 64c | 1,540$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.14 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 838.52$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 836.72$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 781$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.16 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 35c | 771.36$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.69 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 64c | 769.16$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.9 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 63c | 511$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 65c | 493.01$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 76c | 484$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 3c | 469$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 64c | 461.66$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 14c | 274.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 63c | 237.71$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 196.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 22c | 191.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 37c | 149.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 136.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 28c | 120.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 37c | 89.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 64c | 76.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 32c | 54.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…01d8backed Over | 38c | 50.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 63c | 48.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 47c | 37.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 32c | 32.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Under | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 31.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 53c | 30.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 22.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 47c | 21.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…1ce4backed Under | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 63c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Under | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.