MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd400d988d18a7eb3de7da9579b02dd58ba9b5e768b8725f9c6a16bdf5902bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 42c | 2,505$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 43c | 2,147$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.21 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 59c | 2,075$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.84 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 466.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 432.85$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.89 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 324.16$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 322.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 307.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 57c | 273.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 248.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 27c | 199.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 24c | 172.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 157.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 112.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 96.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 45c | 82.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 55c | 79.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 63c | 62.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 49.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 45.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 39c | 43.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 42.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…c701backed Over | 43c | 34.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 33.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 44c | 29.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 58c | 26.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…72e7backed Over | 43c | 24.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…19fcbacked Under | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Under | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 71c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…8148backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…7749backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.