MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x569b4210b8e9f73dc53015b95a852a5d1849558981085f6ba9c07d6b2f51ddbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 36c | 2,941$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 1,462$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 1,313$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 50c | 1,215$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.94 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed New York Yankees | 61c | 999.21$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.69 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed New York Yankees | 70c | 972.33$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 67c | 971.53$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.02 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 952.01$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 691.13$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 682.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.07 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 479$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…2c69backed New York Yankees | 67c | 457.37$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 420$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 395$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 310.48$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.45 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed New York Yankees | 33c | 241.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 205.06$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 151.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 115.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 105.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 88.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 64.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 52.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 52.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed New York Yankees | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed New York Yankees | 62c | 49.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 45.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 42.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 30.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 27.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 24.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 16.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked New York Yankees | 79c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.