NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e13592932c6f6533fbf6300d9e37f2e0dd7031661b5feef5f1591255874bda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 1,726$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.85 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 37c | 1,102$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.44 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 29c | 1,019$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed Over | 25c | 568.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 15c | 529.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 79c | 379$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Under | 74c | 369$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 351.61$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed Under | 80c | 299.21$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 66c | 257.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 76c | 256.38$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 21c | 203.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 20c | 192.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 33c | 169.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 14c | 103.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 63c | 100.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 74c | 94.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Over | 22c | 90.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 21c | 80.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 55c | 79.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 73c | 75.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 76c | 73.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 191 | 53.4%102 W · 89 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 60c | 71.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Under | 78c | 65.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Over | 23c | 59.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 35c | 58.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…138ebacked Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 60c | 41.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 60c | 38.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 66c | 37.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 64c | 37.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…f4ffbacked Over | 40c | 36.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Over | 37c | 36.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…95ebbacked Under | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…93c0backed Under | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…4763backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 64c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Under | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae9…fef3backed Under | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…a17cbacked Under | 80c | 12.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.