NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90025e08e20a735ed04847b8282c952b554669cfea3bf2640bdb9b772aa38b70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 78c | 2,076$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.97 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…c4bfbacked Under | 23c | 1,457$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 16c | 1,423$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.05 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 77c | 654.22$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.73 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 22c | 555$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.1 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 74c | 465.28$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 21c | 454.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…162fbacked Under | 25c | 395.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 13c | 244.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed Under | 27c | 154.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 79c | 138.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…b3dcbacked Under | 11c | 100.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 22c | 92.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 79c | 89.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…d402backed Under | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…d1cebacked Over | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.