NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a56a68d51ecce4103f8f91d813cb645499d2604add258c479591c69f3bfb26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Sabres, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7e1…ec43backed Canadiens | 67c | 12,068$8,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,997.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c9…4b9cbacked Sabres | 33c | 11,076$3,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sabres | 33c | 1,797$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.12 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens | 66c | 1,692$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.42 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sabres | 5c | 1,146$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Canadiens | 67c | 815.25$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.55 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…a0a6backed Sabres | 34c | 735.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Canadiens | 67c | 626$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.58 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…2e90backed Sabres | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b5…5769backed Sabres | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…5b10backed Sabres | 34c | 540$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…894fbacked Sabres | 34c | 480$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190f…ad18backed Sabres | 34c | 472.35$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…40e9backed Canadiens | 67c | 414$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589c…8998backed Canadiens | 67c | 365$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049c…a267backed Canadiens | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…cbd2backed Canadiens | 68c | 335.62$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…9996backed Sabres | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…4102backed Canadiens | 67c | 290$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd846…a8febacked Canadiens | 67c | 280$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…af92backed Canadiens | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…84ecbacked Sabres | 34c | 255.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canadiens | 79c | 242.62$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…0bfbbacked Canadiens | 67c | 240$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875f…f680backed Canadiens | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…528bbacked Canadiens | 67c | 205$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Sabres | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 67c | 197.1$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Canadiens | 68c | 196.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 128 | 59.4%76 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…cf58backed Sabres | 34c | 176.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sabres | 29c | 169.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5986backed Sabres | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa928…bbaabacked Sabres | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Sabres | 33c | 143$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Sabres | 34c | 134.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Canadiens | 67c | 129.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Canadiens | 66c | 128.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Sabres | 13c | 109.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Canadiens | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Sabres | 32c | 99.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Sabres | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sabres | 25c | 80.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sabres | 24c | 74.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Sabres | 33c | 71.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecb…c62abacked Sabres | 34c | 59.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Canadiens | 67c | 50.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…54a1backed Sabres | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Canadiens | 66c | 45.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Sabres | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Sabres | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Canadiens | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.