Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e50d28860a228c99e32a669a477399ad48a0215a81befd4dc92c67cb4df9b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 830.49$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 456.41$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 237.89$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 211.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 174.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 28c | 174.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 158.23$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 155.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 64c | 148.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 148.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 126.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 125.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 119.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 82.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…12a9backed Yes | 30c | 76.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 73.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 73.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 28c | 72.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 76c | 71.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 70.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 68.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…d5a2backed Yes | 32c | 62.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 72c | 58.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 46.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 46c | 41.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 70c | 34.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…ebe1backed No | 72c | 30.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 70c | 27.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 71c | 26.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 23.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.