WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01fe2895135673cc046a996311bf57631be6521228e481d0504e60c9d6f15e38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 5,020$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.19 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 3,749$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.98 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 904$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.58 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 899.13$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.45 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 764.57$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.99 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 366.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.26 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Connecticut Sun | 42c | 208.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 206.08$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun | 35c | 153.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Indiana Fever | 62c | 107$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 53.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 37.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 37.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb44…cdc0backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 31.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b9…6d67backed Connecticut Sun | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut SunIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.