WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf376b8531819a47bda7a7dd714941c5ecd22e6fe5b80c96d190ea4fc065c10c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Indiana Fever, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3f6abacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 3,022$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.73 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 45c | 2,943$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.46 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…cb4ebacked Indiana Fever | 42c | 2,582$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.12 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3854backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 2,152$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 1,681$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.47 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 50c | 1,373$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.45 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 1,004$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.83 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 328.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Indiana Fever | 24c | 250$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Indiana Fever | 39c | 214.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 34c | 197$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Indiana Fever | 23c | 173$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 172.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 135.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Indiana Fever | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Indiana Fever | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Indiana Fever | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Indiana Fever | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Indiana Fever | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 111.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 96.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 84.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 50.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…f1e9backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Connecticut Sun | 54c | 47.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut Sun | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Indiana Fever | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 39.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Connecticut Sun | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Indiana Fever | 49c | 29.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…8a98backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b5…ae57backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 23.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Connecticut Sun | 72c | 22.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut SunIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.