WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d6b1d1eca0340757c5ae1e62ecf2b7c20bf2b050c9d10000bb5ac715413079a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Indiana Fever, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever | 43c | 7,832$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.76 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 7,792$4,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,350.53 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 27c | 7,262$1,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,934.42 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 6,472$3,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,315.7 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 3,846$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.15 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 1,629$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.85 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 1,594$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.47 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun | 61c | 1,166$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.35 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Indiana Fever | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Indiana Fever | 41c | 963.89$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.73 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 759.28$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.89 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 722$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.29 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 602$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 563.53$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Connecticut Sun | 57c | 482.74$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.5 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Connecticut Sun | 70c | 425.86$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 378.07$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Connecticut Sun | 64c | 349.94$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Connecticut Sun | 73c | 280.76$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut Sun | 78c | 241.46$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Indiana Fever | 15c | 239$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 198.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Connecticut Sun | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 179$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Indiana Fever | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Indiana Fever | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Connecticut Sun | 70c | 151$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Connecticut Sun | 79c | 142.97$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 139.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Connecticut Sun | 67c | 103$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Connecticut Sun | 79c | 89.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Connecticut Sun | 75c | 87.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun | 44c | 84.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…f1e9backed Connecticut Sun | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…2f98backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 70.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 65.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Indiana Fever | 26c | 62.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Connecticut Sun | 62c | 54.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 54.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 48.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 48.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 46.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Indiana Fever | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 39.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b5…ae57backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 37.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 34.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Connecticut Sun | 69c | 30.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 29.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Indiana Fever | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4185…0bdebacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 23.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b9…6d67backed Connecticut Sun | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Connecticut Sun | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Connecticut Sun | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut SunIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5Under won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.