TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Connecticut Sun
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,535
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$378,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,535 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Indiana Fever80c174,358$139,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,930.258937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Connecticut Sun20c150,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0001250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Connecticut Sun16c54,589$8,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,542.339318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Connecticut Sun27c25,643$6,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,972.872817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun21c13,397$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.2178548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever73c11,996$8,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.6299548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun21c8,192$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.4583748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Indiana Fever76c7,953$6,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.613351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Indiana Fever76c6,655$5,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.0321446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Indiana Fever76c5,396$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29550952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Connecticut Sun13c4,700$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6209139.6%36 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun16c4,013$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.061,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c05…9e9fbacked Connecticut Sun33c2,915$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Indiana Fever79c2,530$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.683455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Connecticut Sun20c2,447$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6740550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Connecticut Sun20c2,173$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.646247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Indiana Fever80c1,988$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.1310634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun21c1,686$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.7492248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Connecticut Sun20c1,674$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7241145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Indiana Fever80c1,575$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.9336454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Connecticut Sun11c1,492$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1512234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Connecticut Sun19c1,390$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.17119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Indiana Fever80c1,354$1,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.035538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Connecticut Sun19c1,336$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3516633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Indiana Fever80c1,323$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.2155255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Connecticut Sun20c1,162$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9389349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Indiana Fever79c1,143$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.965156.9%29 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Connecticut Sun37c1,050$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.2514346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Indiana Fever67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3305149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Connecticut Sun9c999.51$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9612045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2981…698fbacked Connecticut Sun18c900$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Indiana Fever80c890.78$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.437850%189 W · 189 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Indiana Fever76c799.99$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1926440.6%26 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Indiana Fever62c799.99$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.997259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Connecticut Sun32c731.43$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.621833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Indiana Fever80c714.25$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0319458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Connecticut Sun2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Connecticut Sun11c700$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Indiana Fever78c666$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.461376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever80c647.94$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2332049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Connecticut Sun22c574$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.821346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Indiana Fever73c550$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4710838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Indiana Fever79c507.97$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.930347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4c…fc89backed Indiana Fever79c503.7$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.71968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x886f…aa8fbacked Connecticut Sun20c500.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Connecticut Sun20c499.75$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9618844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd706…8f50backed Connecticut Sun3c488.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Connecticut Sun21c455.73$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9161042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Indiana Fever80c455.57$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.1119142.4%81 W · 110 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Indiana Fever76c453.27$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.951662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d53…149cbacked Connecticut Sun27c429.18$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1151952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Indiana Fever78c425.05$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.9119428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Connecticut Sun17c412.82$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8719646.9%92 W · 104 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Connecticut Sun20c392.7$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.363534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc174…66f2backed Indiana Fever80c388.59$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Indiana Fever72c375.38$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8615346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Indiana Fever76c328.47$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.428447.6%40 W · 44 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d8…f8fabacked Connecticut Sun31c324$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Indiana Fever80c318.97$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8118746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb09…0f04backed Connecticut Sun32c312.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Connecticut Sun22c301.91$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.82934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Connecticut Sun20c293$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0313147.3%62 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun16c286.69$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.374942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb5…1d5bbacked Connecticut Sun21c286.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0094…eea5backed Connecticut Sun9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25140%0 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Indiana Fever75c250$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6141147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Indiana Fever80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5022967.7%155 W · 74 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e81…b4cebacked Indiana Fever80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509100%9 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Connecticut Sun21c239.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2138645.9%177 W · 209 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Connecticut Sun25c232$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Indiana Fever71c227.63$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9437650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Connecticut Sun18c218$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.539444.7%42 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Indiana Fever73c211$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9710923.9%26 W · 83 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Indiana Fever78c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed Connecticut Sun16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Connecticut Sun22c197.59$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.173053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Connecticut Sun16c196.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6234918.3%64 W · 285 L-49.5wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Indiana Fever74c189.4$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.462040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Indiana Fever75c187$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7521150.2%106 W · 105 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Connecticut Sun24c182.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8613346.6%62 W · 71 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Connecticut Sun30c180.03$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0114947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Connecticut Sun23c173$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.791526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b8d…44b1backed Connecticut Sun9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510237.3%38 W · 64 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Connecticut Sun18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306030%18 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Indiana Fever63c166.08$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…d56abacked Connecticut Sun8c157.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.621145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Indiana Fever74c157.08$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.091952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Connecticut Sun26c156.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.154156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Indiana Fever75c156$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7824852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Indiana Fever74c155.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.411872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Indiana Fever80c147.81$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8732150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever80c137.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.761,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Indiana Fever74c135.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.124100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Connecticut Sun38c128.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Connecticut Sun39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Indiana Fever79c126.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c9…bc74backed Indiana Fever79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5812651.6%65 W · 61 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Indiana Fever79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.587946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Indiana Fever80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255766.7%38 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a63…ceabbacked Connecticut Sun19c118.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.659146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.