Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0208e20de1112f19f282c5655a84e716ea635eceb1c3031fcb60371c08458ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 842.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 451.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 3c | 420.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 31c | 273$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 230.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 201.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…f555backed Yes | 30c | 199.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 197.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 184.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 134.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 70c | 120.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…2851backed Yes | 34c | 117.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 22c | 115.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 108.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 35c | 106.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 105.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…960abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 95.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 86.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 86.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 32c | 80.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 23c | 75.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 24c | 75.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 72.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 69.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 25c | 58.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 56.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 21c | 56.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 47.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 25c | 42.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 70c | 40.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1d0ebacked No | 70c | 40.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 37.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 31c | 36.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 35.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 34.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 77c | 27.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea18…e9c1backed No | 73c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 71c | 25.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b1…b017backed No | 79c | 24.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 80c | 20.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 70c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…cecebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed No | 78c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 73c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.