MLB · resolved market
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0209608cd844d4a28c6ace310458436c36dc9c7b6d791f6135a191e8f7114a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jaysof Red Sox, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 7,809$3,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.41 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Red Sox | 51c | 6,591$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354.48 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox | 49c | 2,094$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.95 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Red Sox | 52c | 1,942$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox | 20c | 1,758$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.05 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Red Sox | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Blue Jays | 44c | 1,026$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.84 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Red Sox | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Blue Jays | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Red Sox | 59c | 1,000$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays | 50c | 947.48$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.92 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Blue Jays | 51c | 921.67$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.67 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Red Sox | 27c | 787.13$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.63 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Red Sox | 47c | 621.67$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.67 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Blue Jays | 51c | 590.87$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.6 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Blue Jays | 52c | 554.63$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.38 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Blue Jays | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Red Sox | 50c | 495.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Red Sox | 49c | 472$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.28 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox | 48c | 426.55$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.01 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Red Sox | 50c | 414.68$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.34 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Blue Jays | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Blue Jays | 52c | 370$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.41 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Blue Jays | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Blue Jays | 52c | 232.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Blue Jays | 51c | 221.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…224cbacked Blue Jays | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Blue Jays | 48c | 104.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Blue Jays | 52c | 87.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Red Sox | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 52c | 51.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Red Sox | 40c | 50.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Blue Jays | 48c | 42.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Blue Jays | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Blue Jays | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Blue Jays | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Blue Jays | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Red Sox | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Red Sox | 50c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Red Sox | 66c | 18.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Red Sox | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.