Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x020f63808715865bda272b35dc4a84d18127f1bff25dca123235a99b5a1320a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 33c | 490.26$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 441.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 210.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 187$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 7c | 154.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 39c | 148$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Yes | 31c | 127.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 21c | 124.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 116.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 22c | 107.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 106.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 102.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 22c | 96.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 93.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 88.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 78c | 75.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 71.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 68c | 58.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 58.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 21c | 48.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 26c | 46.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 37.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 32.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 32c | 32.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 32c | 31.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 80c | 24.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…4ed0backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.