Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17f04a208c96bdca26bf634028dde37e5c23dd20797364662fb0dd7bef6d58aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 10c | 821.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 485.22$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.37 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 8c | 482.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 7c | 333.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 307.64$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 274.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 208.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 205.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 187$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 6c | 180.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 148.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 72c | 134.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 32c | 121.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 119.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 15c | 117.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 111.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 105$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 102.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 101.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 22c | 98.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 93.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 89.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 83.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 37c | 83.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 62c | 74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 71.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 48c | 61.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 60.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c9…5915backed Yes | 38c | 51.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 45.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 44.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 57c | 43.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 70c | 43.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 42.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 75c | 40.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 39.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 64c | 38.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 67c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 61c | 21.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 74c | 21.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 65c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…2658backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 61c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 16.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 96°F or higher on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.