Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02336b1d5f9d52c8998bd56a57f4969f233fd0d92b8c9da4ae3dce7cc4987e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 17c | 2,810$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.08 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 1,071$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 10c | 1,046$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.3 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 34c | 685.87$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 11c | 682.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.89 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 661.8$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 5c | 569.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 540.9$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 539.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…211cbacked Yes | 11c | 474.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 461.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 9c | 433.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 411.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 17c | 397.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 8c | 389.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 388$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 343.89$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 340.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 319.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 316.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 34c | 294.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 287.66$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 280.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 14c | 240.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 16c | 208.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.17 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 14c | 205$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.2 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 198.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 14c | 194.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 183.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 180.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed Yes | 59c | 168.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 12c | 161.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 160.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 11c | 154$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed No | 7c | 137.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 15c | 135.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 135.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 126.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 9c | 123.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 115.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 9c | 115.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 18c | 109.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 102.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…c2a5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 20c | 98.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 89.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…7a48backed Yes | 25c | 83.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 70c | 83.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 78c | 73.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Yes | 17c | 72.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed Yes | 28c | 71.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 25c | 69.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 32c | 69.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 16c | 68.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2eb…d673backed Yes | 78c | 64.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 18c | 58.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 26c | 56.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 56.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 20c | 50.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 48.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 24c | 43.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…ec7bbacked Yes | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 31.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 18.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…e087backed Yes | 78c | 17.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 15.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.