TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1a31…df1fbacked Yes0c7,798$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes15c2,560$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.873,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c1,219$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.724,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes65c595.84$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.971,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes59c561.66$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.381,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes67c560.25$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.784257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes58c499.61$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.438,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed No45c491.52$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.223234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed No38c449.98$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.493138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2876…752fbacked No44c377.39$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.16966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+45.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c337$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.655,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes41c331.95$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.463,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c299.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3115923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c282.51$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ab…b958backed Yes68c275.6$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes63c271$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1722,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes15c266.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.975,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No50c260.55$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.644,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No32c250.3$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.0888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No42c242.71$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0553525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…8b44backed No42c240.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1711737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No53c239.77$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8498738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No31c236.75$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes30c230.14$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7316335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fa…5444backed Yes68c220.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea2…d75bbacked Yes20c220.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes48c217.83$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd5…4390backed Yes72c199.99$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.996660.6%40 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No46c198.8$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5281756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd8…2183backed Yes51c197.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes54c196.04$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4661760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No58c190.37$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.1833535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3970…d4dcbacked Yes62c176$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes60c175.53$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.781,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x731c…e430backed Yes58c175.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes7c169.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes48c165$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb98d…86e4backed Yes8c164.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes71c153.84$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6924466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cbe…5bcfbacked Yes65c153.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes21c152.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3534624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes56c149.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.999634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes46c148.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6447…d527backed Yes70c140.05$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1648…c24bbacked Yes44c133$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.212425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes51c131.24$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.435633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed No36c129.74$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5977428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c127.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.377,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes70c125$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.329469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9bd…e555backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258035%28 W · 52 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae43…5727backed Yes75c122.24$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No43c120.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.371,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes57c116.12$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.312,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb696…02d9backed Yes49c112.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.463951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes29c111.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e5e…ec7bbacked Yes76c107.55$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.551250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes65c106.67$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.152,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c105.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No51c104.24$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.981,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes68c103.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No52c102.57$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.692,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac2…f949backed Yes68c101.48$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee2…8a14backed Yes72c100.79$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked No36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f6…76e2backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed No39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6171031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cb…7219backed Yes70c99.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No52c95.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6918052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11c2…922bbacked Yes67c94.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92f4…63a4backed Yes71c92.55$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c4…7387backed Yes26c90.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cd…af49backed Yes72c90.51$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…886abacked Yes36c87.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08be…c3b0backed Yes28c87.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No45c83.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes48c82.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.534633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No33c81.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.822,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No36c78.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.671,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x46f0…e338backed Yes64c77.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ef…84d1backed Yes66c77.13$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No36c74.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6712365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes52c74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.374,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No32c73.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1615…7b3dbacked Yes76c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe867…4e6ebacked No68c69.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.445549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.152,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5671…f39bbacked Yes68c65.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0bf…0fb0backed Yes17c64.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.031330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…bb75backed No31c63.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4193…7a48backed Yes74c62.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes22c61.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2943050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes46c61.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2246444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No44c60.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No32c59.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.461,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…1c88backed Yes71c59.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.321450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes54c59.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0642849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes29c57.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xffae…7b48backed Yes65c54.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9c7…be3bbacked No36c54.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacca…8996backed No37c52.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.024721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.