Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf5057611bb14ed7908b4ba3845bcba6a9a3f0b813f646f5381e2873676ce24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,892$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 26c | 499.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 8c | 475.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 18c | 402.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 26c | 388.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 384.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d4a3backed Yes | 7c | 367.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 339.18$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 7c | 310.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 297.43$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 292$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 273.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 72c | 272.67$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 236.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 219.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 30c | 215.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed Yes | 40c | 204.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 19c | 198.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…d4dcbacked Yes | 21c | 194.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 72c | 189.6$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 35c | 187.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 182.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4962…f1b2backed No | 80c | 163.3$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed No | 25c | 160.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…922bbacked Yes | 28c | 158.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 31c | 151.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed No | 49c | 143.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 141.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 135.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 60c | 126.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 124.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…3bd5backed Yes | 17c | 118.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked No | 79c | 113.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 32c | 107.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 19c | 106.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 106.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 10c | 103.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 100.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 30c | 100.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 95.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 43c | 89.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 60c | 88.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 88.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 23c | 87.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 84.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…211cbacked Yes | 25c | 81.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 26c | 78.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed No | 36c | 74.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 76c | 74.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed No | 80c | 69.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 15c | 66.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes | 58c | 64.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 64.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 55c | 60.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 58.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 58.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 58.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed No | 69c | 58.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 58.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 50c | 55.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes | 29c | 55.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 51.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 77c | 50.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 50.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…396dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 49.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2eb…d673backed Yes | 27c | 45.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 61c | 43.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…bcedbacked No | 79c | 43.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 78c | 42.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 29c | 42.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 42.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 30c | 40.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 39.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…9f0cbacked No | 72c | 37.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.