TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,519 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c1,892$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.923,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes26c499.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9912735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes8c475.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes18c402.07$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5516335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes26c388.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.117140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c384.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c6…d4a3backed Yes7c367.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No77c339.18$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.383,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes7c310.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.981,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes4c299.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No75c297.43$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.54,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No77c292$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.753,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes26c273.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.65,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No72c272.67$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.369634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c236.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes27c219.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes30c215.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c15…90d5backed Yes40c204.55$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.673865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes19c198.95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9411019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3970…d4dcbacked Yes21c194.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes72c189.6$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.922,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes35c187.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c182.37$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.864,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4962…f1b2backed No80c163.3$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed No25c160.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.387237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes7c160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3228742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11c2…922bbacked Yes28c158.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a33…308bbacked Yes31c151.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.342934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e54…7986backed No49c143.36$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.61650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes15c141.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes19c135.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3653525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed No60c126.97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No39c124.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.712,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba25…3bd5backed Yes17c118.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b6…20febacked No79c113.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.462035%7 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1648…c24bbacked Yes32c107.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.942425%6 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes19c106.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes17c106.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.471,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes10c103.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No74c100.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1581756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes30c100.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1015923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2136648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c95.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes43c89.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.941145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No60c88.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3629953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes20c88.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes23c87.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes12c87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes25c84.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0366926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…211cbacked Yes25c81.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes26c78.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d72…9461backed No36c74.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.455841.4%24 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes76c74.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.772,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes20c69.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5868…64c8backed No80c69.71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17a8…3509backed Yes15c66.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d63…5dd1backed Yes58c64.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.782564%16 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No80c64.03$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.963,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14fd…50afbacked Yes55c60.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.381643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c58.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes19c58.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No69c58.88$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1567158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed No69c58.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1612329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No74c58.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.051,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked Yes71c58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1820172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No50c55.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes29c55.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.123441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No77c51.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.952,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No77c50.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6712365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes22c50.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4a7…396dbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes22c49.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9333535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes24c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.513035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2eb…d673backed Yes27c45.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes59c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed Yes61c43.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.522,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe879…bcedbacked No79c43.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No78c42.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes29c42.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No77c42.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No78c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed Yes61c41.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2534050.6%172 W · 168 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes30c40.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.618837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No69c39.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.381,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes32c38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.182,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d7…9f0cbacked No72c37.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.651172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.