MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023c43bbf949eb7b5a40f79b266f5cd99a8083ff52054d32546f5cfe52e0a09c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dodgersof Marlins, Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8377…4198backed Marlins | 58c | 21,078$12,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,219.98 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dodgers | 73c | 16,521$12,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,467.14 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Dodgers | 40c | 16,176$6,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,702.35 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Marlins | 30c | 12,750$3,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,815.03 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…4c43backed Marlins | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Dodgers | 58c | 7,882$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.37 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Marlins | 47c | 3,685$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.27 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 28c | 3,605$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.14 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked Dodgers | 61c | 3,279$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,278.69 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Dodgers | 53c | 3,027$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.99 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Dodgers | 60c | 2,085$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Marlins | 36c | 2,032$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Dodgers | 72c | 1,949$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Dodgers | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Dodgers | 70c | 1,432$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.6 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Dodgers | 57c | 1,311$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.17 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Dodgers | 74c | 1,300$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.55 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Dodgers | 49c | 1,220$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.98 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Marlins | 28c | 873.05$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.45 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Dodgers | 72c | 868.05$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.05 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Dodgers | 72c | 847.22$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.22 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Dodgers | 71c | 750$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Dodgers | 71c | 550$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Marlins | 14c | 486.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Dodgers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Marlins | 31c | 351$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 30c | 317.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dodgers | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dodgers | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Dodgers | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Dodgers | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8896…7d78backed Dodgers | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Dodgers | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Marlins | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…4619backed Dodgers | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Dodgers | 52c | 109.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Marlins | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Dodgers | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Marlins | 34c | 84.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Marlins | 25c | 81.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Dodgers | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Dodgers | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Dodgers | 72c | 65.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Marlins | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Dodgers | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Marlins | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Dodgers | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Dodgers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Dodgers | 72c | 31.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Dodgers | 72c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.