Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x024b67a053fab18b0d0462028850397b45cfe44ccb551e3c78d052d54b98530b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 44c | 225.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 202$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 46c | 161.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 155.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 153.77$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 149.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 43c | 141.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 137.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 130.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 129.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 124.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 113.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 108.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 108.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 59c | 101$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 43c | 91.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 75.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 46c | 62.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 57.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 56.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 51.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 50.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 48.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 32c | 48.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 52c | 48.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…4e1bbacked No | 45c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 44.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 44c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 44c | 36.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 55c | 32.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 45c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 73c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 41c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 26.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 26.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 54c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 67c | 21.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 56c | 21.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 66c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 18.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 69c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 58c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 67c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.