Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5c3c497d38241cb531ae7984c271b5d7e9b4c9869072a4ba61056c297a3f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 10c | 953.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 75c | 414.83$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed No | 4c | 357.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 238.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 177.27$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 19c | 175.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 54c | 168.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 165$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.05 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 151.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 30c | 151.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 36c | 142.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 124.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 24c | 114.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 68c | 109.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 106.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 103.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 91.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 87.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 85.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 69c | 85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 83.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 78.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 67.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 30c | 66.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 65.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 63.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 53.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 51.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 46.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 58c | 45.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 44.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 44.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 43.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 43.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 40.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 69c | 39.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 36.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d1ccbacked Yes | 30c | 35.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 30.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 30.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 35c | 29.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 45c | 29.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 28.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194d…85c0backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 20.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 69c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…9068backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.