MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028c4722370178e5a8dfce436e2f196ce537e2ad176be4197634ebbb82b2e405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 8c | 1,781$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 163.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Boston Red Sox | 7c | 161$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 149.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 149.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 114$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 42.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 42.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 16.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.