MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b0addde815467692a98b351d76398b644e7f1b713ae8240dd8dea97850f93fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 56c | 6,000$3,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.16 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 2,713$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 2,581$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 54c | 1,851$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Under | 44c | 1,663$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.13 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 54c | 1,660$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.45 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 1,394$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.48 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 1,368$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.84 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 54c | 1,186$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.44 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 47c | 1,182$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.6 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 58c | 709.02$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.79 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 585$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8f…c1f0backed Under | 48c | 554.58$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 547.31$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.02 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 60c | 544.63$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 46c | 522$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.88 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 507$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 58c | 451.03$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.43 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 436.73$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 292.23$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 276.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 263.37$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 44c | 195.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 139.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…f5eebacked Under | 46c | 136.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 58c | 128.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 41c | 109.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 63c | 97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 42c | 79.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 75.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 59.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 45c | 33.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Under | 46c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 55c | 30.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Under | 46c | 26.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 52c | 19.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 58c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.