MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b73df257cad3519bb52e269583d7ba4312d48c336f24063606824af758d0710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 13,908$5,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,927.77 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 13,094$5,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,755.42 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 56c | 8,151$4,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,586.63 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 57c | 6,121$3,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.82 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 44c | 5,726$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.62 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 44c | 3,319$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.3 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 3,307$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.06 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,224$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.56 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 1,709$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.35 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 1,294$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.84 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 768.26$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.33 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…c944backed Over | 44c | 663.64$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 65c | 625$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 585$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 43c | 573$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.39 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 65c | 411.28$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 58c | 405.48$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 399.71$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.83 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 50c | 361.36$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 33c | 340.05$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 47c | 320.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.24 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 816 | 57.1%466 W · 350 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 44c | 197.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 56c | 171.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…e5d6backed Over | 44c | 168.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 164.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 42c | 155.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 56c | 140$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 133.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 127.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 64c | 120.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 56c | 119.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 61c | 79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 76.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 44c | 63.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 44c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 45c | 38.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Over | 43c | 37.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 46c | 32.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 32.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 46c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 59c | 26.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Under | 58c | 25.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Under | 57c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Over | 80c | 22.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 70 | 80%56 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.