TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Yakult Brothers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,424 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION64c22,371$14,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,029.954556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Yakult Brothers35c17,997$6,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,273.9113020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yakult Brothers3c9,398$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.022,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Yakult Brothers34c5,692$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.318749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked PARIVISION70c5,350$3,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.5486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed PARIVISION74c3,889$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.0714253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION69c3,387$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.316665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Yakult Brothers34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c00…0468backed PARIVISION72c2,962$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yakult Brothers1c2,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-67.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Yakult Brothers36c1,880$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.7930336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked PARIVISION64c1,773$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.0216945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Yakult Brothers34c1,750$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Yakult Brothers31c1,517$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked PARIVISION66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.1520367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Yakult Brothers35c1,500$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53258744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Yakult Brothers38c1,303$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4951,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed PARIVISION65c1,284$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.8288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Yakult Brothers39c1,245$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.528048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Yakult Brothers37c1,207$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.941,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers27c1,078$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.621,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed PARIVISION66c1,061$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.7446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Yakult Brothers33c1,055$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.2256542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked PARIVISION61c1,004$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1918362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed Yakult Brothers37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yakult Brothers38c991.79$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.2573841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed PARIVISION75c933.97$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.973847.4%18 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Yakult Brothers36c859.02$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31315338.6%59 W · 94 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yakult Brothers29c808.8$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.542,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Yakult Brothers26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Yakult Brothers34c731.58$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2481,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed PARIVISION61c675.65$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.3666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION71c621.55$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.561,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION58c614.59$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed PARIVISION64c572.88$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.126349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b7e…ef88backed Yakult Brothers26c563.15$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.428425%21 W · 63 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Yakult Brothers36c559.94$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.8212638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yakult Brothers34c549.21$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2260542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yakult Brothers5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Yakult Brothers30c500$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.255147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce4d…ade4backed Yakult Brothers3c462.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.87944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed PARIVISION66c431.61$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7537549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed PARIVISION63c430$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.333549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked PARIVISION58c427.97$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9736654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Yakult Brothers7c400.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5249644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed PARIVISION64c400$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14625639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Yakult Brothers36c391.97$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6444645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed PARIVISION66c330.76$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed PARIVISION64c313.63$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.6314661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked PARIVISION72c309.35$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.359858.2%57 W · 41 L-0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Yakult Brothers32c300.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5118746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed PARIVISION58c294$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4812454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Yakult Brothers35c290$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.533644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed PARIVISION54c277.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2250053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yakult Brothers42c239.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Yakult Brothers20c213$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.631835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked PARIVISION65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7018065.6%118 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yakult Brothers34c199.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6812642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked PARIVISION66c197.95$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.32343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed PARIVISION70c178.62$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.754052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked Yakult Brothers46c174.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.482934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef3a…dc6bbacked PARIVISION58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4114453.5%77 W · 67 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9120…ae70backed PARIVISION66c159.09$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9521062.4%131 W · 79 L+0.8wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked PARIVISION64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked PARIVISION66c141.38$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0761057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ccb…bbd7backed Yakult Brothers38c141.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.565837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe289…c31abacked PARIVISION72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.893571.4%25 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked PARIVISION64c134.15$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.294654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Yakult Brothers50c131.06$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked PARIVISION65c120$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427565.3%49 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION77c112.22$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6420156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908b…247cbacked Yakult Brothers36c110.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.88254.9%45 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yakult Brothers37c108.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409150.5%46 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yakult Brothers33c100.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.132,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yakult Brothers33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3370236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked PARIVISION66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3441244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed PARIVISION67c89.28$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4656548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Yakult Brothers40c84.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3428549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yakult Brothers36c83.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.851,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yakult Brothers34c80$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.213636%49 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed PARIVISION60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3254753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Yakult Brothers17c75.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1336138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yakult Brothers42c72.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5522456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Yakult Brothers36c71.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8822538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yakult Brothers34c70.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9718739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Yakult Brothers31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.863032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yakult Brothers37c66.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Yakult Brothers31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.640745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed PARIVISION60c55.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.45267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd49…515dbacked Yakult Brothers38c53.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.929555.8%53 W · 42 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.587645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed PARIVISION70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3116…b54bbacked Yakult Brothers38c47.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked PARIVISION72c43.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3230155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Yakult Brothers31c41.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.011,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Yakult Brothers31c40.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.791,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f0…2000backed Yakult Brothers37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82450%12 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6e…7fa3backed PARIVISION57c36.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.844757.4%27 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed PARIVISION64c35.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7510735.5%38 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed PARIVISION64c34.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.68246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.