CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02c9ed6889c4143c060c0655591971741443168ab8b16dbba1caa59ccb937714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof G2 Ares, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 Ares | 80c | 11,352$9,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.05 | 5,137 | 55%2,826 W · 2,311 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed megoshort | 19c | 4,818$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.31 | 2,691 | 30.7%826 W · 1,865 L | -110.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed megoshort | 17c | 4,182$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.39 | 231 | 44.2%102 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked megoshort | 20c | 2,186$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.19 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed megoshort | 20c | 2,060$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.74 | 238 | 32.8%78 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed megoshort | 19c | 1,616$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed megoshort | 20c | 1,171$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.26 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -16.6wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 12c | 1,168$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.31 | 6,522 | 42.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L | -80.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed megoshort | 14c | 1,099$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 172 | 35.5%61 W · 111 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…8d38backed megoshort | 6c | 939.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked megoshort | 10c | 689.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 3,262 | 50.3%1,640 W · 1,622 L | +97.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed G2 Ares | 79c | 632.9$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 618 | 55.8%345 W · 273 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed G2 Ares | 79c | 506.33$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 2,048 | 53.8%1,101 W · 947 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…55f3backed megoshort | 19c | 448.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed G2 Ares | 79c | 428.43$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 1,680 | 53.2%893 W · 787 L | +65.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked megoshort | 9c | 415.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1,100 | 31.7%349 W · 751 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked G2 Ares | 74c | 404.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked megoshort | 26c | 384.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed megoshort | 21c | 383.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 365 | 38.9%142 W · 223 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed G2 Ares | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 225 | 67.1%151 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed megoshort | 24c | 369.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2,536 | 43.1%1,094 W · 1,442 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed megoshort | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 387 | 45.7%177 W · 210 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked megoshort | 19c | 289.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 3,624 | 29.4%1,065 W · 2,559 L | -291.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…cc65backed megoshort | 11c | 267.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 223 | 46.2%103 W · 120 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed megoshort | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 378 | 48.1%182 W · 196 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed megoshort | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 47%139 W · 157 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed megoshort | 20c | 238.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 186 | 45.2%84 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed G2 Ares | 80c | 231.83$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 485 | 54.6%265 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed megoshort | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed megoshort | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…0039backed megoshort | 11c | 190.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked megoshort | 20c | 188.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,634 | 43.2%706 W · 928 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…12b2backed megoshort | 14c | 186.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked megoshort | 19c | 162.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,192 | 47.4%1,040 W · 1,152 L | -59.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked megoshort | 21c | 148$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked megoshort | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 922 | 45.8%422 W · 500 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…df6dbacked G2 Ares | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 108 | 67.6%73 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked megoshort | 20c | 97.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 748 | 53.5%400 W · 348 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed G2 Ares | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 544 | 48.2%262 W · 282 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef06…10c2backed megoshort | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked G2 Ares | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked megoshort | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 340 | 39.4%134 W · 206 L | -19.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked megoshort | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked G2 Ares | 80c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed G2 Ares | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 857 | 55.8%478 W · 379 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd85…1d60backed G2 Ares | 73c | 30.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…fe10backed G2 Ares | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed G2 Ares | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-Inthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort - Map 2 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)G2 Ares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.