CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3002e70de706fe04420c17ff97e6cedfaa0de6c35452ea04b8ce061daad3cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Aresof G2 Ares, megoshort
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked megoshort | 50c | 5,700$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.01 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked G2 Ares | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 38c | 1,971$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.23 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked G2 Ares | 78c | 1,855$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.1 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed G2 Ares | 56c | 1,630$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.74 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked megoshort | 39c | 1,567$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.45 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked megoshort | 40c | 1,459$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.16 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed megoshort | 39c | 1,250$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.38 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked megoshort | 35c | 1,173$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.86 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed G2 Ares | 52c | 1,115$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.75 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…b807backed G2 Ares | 73c | 687.29$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed G2 Ares | 66c | 666$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.18 | 152 | 44.7%68 W · 84 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed megoshort | 27c | 648$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked G2 Ares | 46c | 580.27$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.86 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked G2 Ares | 70c | 561.32$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed G2 Ares | 52c | 479.4$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.91 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…749bbacked megoshort | 26c | 386.66$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 302 | 23.2%70 W · 232 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed megoshort | 41c | 352$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…8d38backed megoshort | 10c | 343.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed megoshort | 39c | 341.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…0435backed megoshort | 38c | 314.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed megoshort | 49c | 306.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed megoshort | 34c | 277.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 1,083 | 42.1%456 W · 627 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed G2 Ares | 67c | 206.4$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 932 | 61.7%575 W · 357 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked G2 Ares | 75c | 200.16$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed megoshort | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 371 | 45.6%169 W · 202 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed megoshort | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 278 | 31.7%88 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked G2 Ares | 45c | 198.2$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed G2 Ares | 52c | 193.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 399 | 55.4%221 W · 178 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked G2 Ares | 56c | 183.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed G2 Ares | 57c | 180$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…6019backed G2 Ares | 56c | 178.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed G2 Ares | 54c | 177.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed megoshort | 30c | 143$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed megoshort | 57c | 138$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed G2 Ares | 45c | 133$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…cc65backed megoshort | 36c | 131.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 223 | 46.2%103 W · 120 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked megoshort | 53c | 126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked megoshort | 40c | 125.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked G2 Ares | 73c | 115.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…4985backed G2 Ares | 78c | 115.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3f…6816backed megoshort | 30c | 112.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked megoshort | 41c | 102.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed G2 Ares | 53c | 101.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 194 | 54.1%105 W · 89 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked megoshort | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked G2 Ares | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 723 | 53.5%387 W · 336 L | +28.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…aeb7backed G2 Ares | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…6573backed megoshort | 31c | 89.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked G2 Ares | 54c | 89.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked megoshort | 29c | 84.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked megoshort | 52c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked megoshort | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked megoshort | 23c | 71.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked megoshort | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed megoshort | 45c | 65.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked megoshort | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed G2 Ares | 58c | 61.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…3f91backed G2 Ares | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed G2 Ares | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 245 | 58%142 W · 103 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed megoshort | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…adefbacked G2 Ares | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…e53bbacked G2 Ares | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked megoshort | 36c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…df54backed G2 Ares | 42c | 40.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked megoshort | 42c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 380 | 32.1%122 W · 258 L | -18.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…e334backed G2 Ares | 55c | 36.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…3f76backed megoshort | 49c | 32.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…a4e4backed G2 Ares | 54c | 31.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked megoshort | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed G2 Ares | 59c | 24.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked G2 Ares | 51c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked G2 Ares | 72c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-InG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs megoshort - Map 1 WinnerG2 Ares won
- Map Handicap: G2.A (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)G2 Ares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.