Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0313cb9f2806547cf1cce8c57be9951877ba5378eb06d93dfbf1bfc984d832da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Under | 68c | 295.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 282 | 50%141 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 66c | 269.66$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 30c | 217.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Over | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 664 | 45.6%303 W · 361 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 65c | 174$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 49c | 160.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 33c | 129.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 3,131 | 33.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L | -150.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 127$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 1,464 | 43.4%636 W · 828 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 227 | 48%109 W · 118 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed Under | 51c | 96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 195 | 53.3%104 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 41c | 89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Over | 33c | 88.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 40c | 86.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 487 | 47%229 W · 258 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 39c | 79.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,971 | 30.5%601 W · 1,370 L | -170.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…f137backed Under | 47c | 56.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…476abacked Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 187 | 56.7%106 W · 81 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 46c | 42.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 402 | 31.3%126 W · 276 L | -28.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 37c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,924 | 35.9%691 W · 1,233 L | -97.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 29.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Under | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Game Handicap: FLY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.