Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03332596281c087f4e7ef248e347b5b33de99673accec5574854956215abed71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 19c | 1,805$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.57 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 19c | 887.67$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Under | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 16c | 345.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 18c | 294.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 18c | 277.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 18c | 120.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.