Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd63eebbe52dd10d974d4e2b2ea7b8d461f1ce3018da989cd54af336865bdadb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.94 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Over | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 1,561$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.16 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 36c | 1,348$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.06 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 37c | 1,001$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.36 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 637.97$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.63 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…5ba0backed Over | 63c | 634.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 6c | 624.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 66c | 453$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 209 | 47.8%100 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6593…9d0ebacked Over | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 37c | 340.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 243 | 27.2%66 W · 177 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 66c | 294.11$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 34c | 162.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 239 | 47.7%114 W · 125 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97c…f20abacked Over | 66c | 151.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…b2f8backed Over | 66c | 136.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…b42bbacked Over | 63c | 134.03$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 66c | 123.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 36c | 112.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 66c | 95.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Under | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 76c | 55.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 424 | 38%161 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 293 | 50.5%148 W · 145 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a0…081bbacked Over | 62c | 53.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…8380backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Over | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…2f03backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 35c | 42.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 650 | 50.2%326 W · 324 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…871fbacked Over | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Over | 63c | 30.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…e36bbacked Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…c16abacked Over | 68c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…f671backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 66c | 18.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 382 | 53.9%206 W · 176 L | +21.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe050…c6a3backed Over | 66c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 3.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.