Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x033e0f06bce62f276681d728071f10de7237f7efbe624287283e778120dacc86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 208.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 21c | 192.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 183.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 69c | 145.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…0fcebacked No | 41c | 133.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 130.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 114.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 104.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 103.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 100.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 32c | 93.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 89.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 82.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 81.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 79.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 57c | 78.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 29c | 77.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 73.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 62c | 71.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 68.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 68.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 46c | 66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 57.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 22c | 53.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 69c | 52.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 37c | 50.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…446abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 72c | 44.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 44.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 31c | 39.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 62c | 37.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 78c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 39c | 25.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 60c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 8°C or below on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.